A first look at 2012
Every four years, right-wing political enthusiasts like this writer and his readers err in supposing that some inspiring but nationally unknown Republican might capture the coming Republican presidential nomination, whereas the event somehow never transpires. Democrats nominate newcomers; Republicans do not. The senseless 2008 Republican nomination of John McCain is perhaps the best testament yet to the enduring Republican propensity to nominate whichever nationally known Republican Republicans perceive to come in rightful turn to the lead.
It is one of the several reasons the Tories are affectionately called the Stupid Party. It is also an established fact of political life.
The conservative chatterers’ early favorite for 2012 seems to be Bobby Jindal, Louisiana’s governor. Now, this writer likes Mr. Jindal, to the extent that he knows anything about him; and if Mr. Jindal were to make a credible run at the nomination in 2012 then the governor could conceivably put himself in line for 2016, 2020 or 2024. But Mr. Jindal, fine fellow though he may be, is rather unlikely to be GOP nominee as soon as 2012. He has got the wrong party for that. The GOP will make the youngster wait his turn. (Some of the present pro-Jindal sentiment besides is mere posturing, abusing Mr. Jindal as an antiracist prop because he happens not to be white. Mr. Jindal, a loyal American, deserves more respect than this. Fortunately, Mr. Jindal seems to be aware of the antiracist-prop thing and even to have a healthy sense of humor about it.)
So, if not Mr. Jindal, then who?
Answer: exactly four names clear the bar in time for 2012. The names are those of Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin. The Economic Nationalist believes that the Republican presidential nominee of 2012 is going to be one of these four.
Thankfully, this crop of 2012 is an excellent crop—each of them far superior to Mr. McCain who, seemingly, could not be denied his wretched turn in 2008.
* * *
In an unrelated development, Pat Buchanan was heard on the radio this morning to remind us that, in their respective zeal to take control of the party, the various Republican factions ought not to begin excommunicating one another. A sometime excommunicant, himself, the fair-minded Mr. Buchanan knows something about this; and of course he is right. Shortly afterward, Rush Limbaugh was heard on the radio to threaten “[to] name names,” promising those of us who did not fall into line excommunication.
What a hypocrite.
He won’t win, this time.
HJH
November 5th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
At another site, I read something like the following:
There are 3 factions within the party, the libertarian or Goldwater/Reagan faction, the religious/social conservative faction, and the Wall Street/big business faction. The second is the biggest of the 3, but the party cannot put together a winning coalition with bringing at least 2 of the 3 together.
Bush tried to bring the 2nd and 3rd together, and what we got was “compassionate conservatism.” Huckabee would be the candidate of that coalition. Romney might fall into that category too, although he’s a little harder to peg.
Palin would blend the 1st and 2nd factions, as would Gingrich…maybe.
I don’t see any candidate that would blend the 1st and 3rd factions, except possibly Gingrich.
On a personal note, my own leanings are libertarian, but I am realistic enough to recognize that libertarianism works only when you’ve got a high-trust, relatively homogenous society with members that possess higher than average intelligence, and a better than average work ethic. We haven’t seen that in our country since, oh let’s say Grover Cleveland’s day or maybe even Ben Franklin’s. In other words, great idea in theory, but probably not possible in practice.
November 5th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
I am going to be a wet blanket here, and say that I see little hope that the GOP as it now stands will have a ghost of a chance in 2012 or any subsequent election. If it survives, it will be a liberal-lite party (even more than it is now), a multiculturalist party which cannot claim to be conservative in any substantive way.
The reason? Demographics. All of the prognostications or wishful thoughts I’ve heard from Republicans are based on the groundless assumption that the country of 2012 will be much as it is now. However, given a massive amnesty (which seems to be in the cards) and much-relazxd legal immigration standards, this country will be very different, with a very diffferent electorate than that of today.
Republicans still seem, despite the obvious failure of McCain’s (and Bush’s) Hispandering, determined to create the Big Tent, and to pander to minorities, gays, etc.
As for the factions mentioed in Sgt. Joe Friday’s post, faction 1 and 3 have a real antipathy towards faction 2, and in fact see faction 2 (social/religious conservatives) as excess baggage to be jettisoned as soon as possible. Anybody notice how quickly they are trashing Sarah Palin? She represents that faction and now they want to be rid of her and the social conservatives.
They will probably cobble together some kind of party out of the two ‘colorblind’ factions but they will be missing the real conservatives, who, if they are wise, will defect permanently to a party which is concerned with actually conserving the people and the traditions of this country.
November 6th, 2008 at 12:04 am
Sgt. Joe:
Your points are well taken. After all, unless we are aware of the realities on the ground as you outline them, how can we prepare intelligently for the political future?
VA:
The lesser blogger is honored by the courtesy of the greater. I am always pleased to see you here.
I have much sympathy with your perspective. In fact, more than that, I agree wholeheartedly with it. I have only a slightly different estimation of means.
I admit that I still do believe my reasons to be sound ones, though I ought not to presume to reiterate my reasons here, since I believe that you have heard them before. Suffice it to say that I think that my own, local Republican county party is entirely redeemable, and that I do not suppose my county to be atypical in this respect. If I am right, then what excuse have I not to work patiently to redeem my county? For that’s how we take party and country back: one county at a time.
And we’ll need the support of all three of Sgt. Joe’s factions to do it.
Howard
November 6th, 2008 at 12:38 am
VA:
I see that I have not answered the first part of your comment.
You are entirely right that the Democrats may now swamp us with foreign voters; but the Democratic party, however odious in its present configuration, is not a revolutionary party. I could be wrong, but I suspect that Democrats will go for evolutionary change. They may admit D.C. and/or Puerto Rico as states, for instance. They may amnesty some but not all illegals. There is even a chance that the politics may work out such that the Democrats get snarled up in nationalizing our health system and, as the months pass, decide to put amnesty and/or statehood off until after the election of 2010. Never underestimate the fear in the bellies of those political jackals. Their industrial trade union workers, their soccer moms, won’t countenance the obvious, immediate, deliberate destruction of the nation. Also acknowledge that, in their own, twisted way, most Democratic Congressmen believe that they love America.
And if they put their reforms off: pow! They’ve given us our last chance.
And if they don’t, then we enter a new phase, pursuing victory by other means.
Howard
June 4th, 2009 at 10:18 am
[…] I predicted that the Republican presidential nominee of 2012 would be one of Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt […]