An economic exercise
The Economic Nationalist is in the throes of an economic exercise. Its editor is making money overtime.
That is the good news. The bad news is that it leaves one little time to write articles until—well, I’m not sure when. Maybe, if fortune holds, January 2010; but the work in question is unrelated to economic nationalism.
In the teeth of the present recession one must earn the living one can, accepting bounty with gratitude against the prospect of future lean times. In the meantime, to offer some edifying reading, here is a link to a thought-provoking economic article by the formidable Edwin S. Rubenstein.
August 5th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Well, Howard, it is good to hear that you are doing well, at least economically. I was beginning to fear that you had fallen into a dark pit, it had been so long since your last post. I suppose we will hear from you again someday.
I had been wondering if there was not enough economic news happening to interest you these days. I am just about overwhelmed with the economic news, so I did not see how it could fail to catch your eye at some point.
Make hay while the sun shines, because the rain is coming (or should that be the reign?).
August 5th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
Rubenstein links to an article by Sam Jones at the Financial Times. The final paragraph of that article is here:
In 2007, David Li left Wall Street and moved back to China. He could not be contacted for this story. But two years earlier, before the financial system blew up, he did warn: “Very few people understand the essence of the model.” Harry Panjer, a professor of statistics and actuarial science who was Li’s mentor at Waterloo, strikes a balance between Taleb’s accusations and the stance of Li. Earlier this year, Panjer told The Toronto Star newspaper: “We have a saying in statistics, ‘All models are wrong, but some are useful.’” And David Li’s model was, for a period, profoundly useful.
I thought the comment that “all models are wrong abut some are useful” was very profound. It has wide application, far beyond the scope of this material.
It is very interesting, I think, that Li eventually fled to China, the place he came from originally, when the world came crashing down upon him. He refused to face his error apparently. That should be a warning to us about who we will choose to trust.