The wheel of American politics
So here we stand, on the verge of election again. Our badly abused yet still magnificent Constitution authorizes and condones that solemn popular act November 4 which—we have every reason to believe—will order the 43rd peaceful change of power in U.S. history.
At noon, January 20, our 44th president will take the oath of office on the Capitol’s steps in unbroken line of succession from him who was and remains “first in war, first in peace, first in the hearts of his countrymen.” In honor of George Washington’s memory, for reasons of history, heritage, heart and hearth, to the proper authority and official dignity of Washington’s successor it will be our high honor, and distinct privilege, to hold ourselves uprightly loyal.
Presidents on the other hand are to be honored, not trusted. Congress, the people’s watchdog, will need all the strength of our moral support to guard our beloved nation against potential presidential misbehavior during the four years that come.
In this the campaign’s last week, the red heat and fulmination of competing parties have rendered rational political conversation practically impossible. This writer, neither a newspaperman nor a candidate for office, has little left to say about Election 2008 but that which he has already said. For those whom it interests who do not already know, The Economic Nationalist cordially recommends
- Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution party for president;
- Bob Bird of the Constitution party to take Ted Stevens’ U.S. senate seat in Alaska;
- Bob Conley of the Democratic party to take Lindsey Graham’s U.S. senate seat in South Carolina;
- Republicans of all stripes for nearly every other elective office in the land.
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The writer, who perhaps has seen a few more elections than some of his younger readers have, would like for his own satisfaction if for no other reason to record a quiet observation in advance of the polls. His observation is this:
Political cycles exist, they are real, they are inevitable, and they have consequences.
If the Republican party should fare poorly Tuesday, as seems not unlikely, the principal cause of Republican misfortune will have little to do with John McCain, who—despite misjudgments to the contrary—has actually run a rather competent, effective campaign. Republicans are not in trouble electorally this year because they were too conservative, too liberal, too naive, too corrupt, etc. They may indeed be some of those things, but this is not the reason. Republicans are in trouble electorally because the wheel of American politics never ceases to turn, because Republicans have enjoyed and spent their long, warm day in the political sun, and, quite simply, because the Democrats’ turn has come.
That wheel is awfully hard to fight. The present Democratic prosperity is cyclical. No other analysis of which I am aware fits the actual facts of this election.
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The magnetic Mr. McCain has run as strong a campaign as any Republican presidential nominee has run in twenty years, even if he is running up a political cliff (and we may be thankful for the cliff, for Mr. McCain is a dangerous man). Barack Obama the suave, black, McGovernite leftist makes a relatively weak Democratic opponent, which regrettably leaves a window open for the wrongheaded but formidable Mr. McCain to capture an unexpected win; but it seems the more likely that Mr. Obama will ride the Democratic wave to victory in 2008.
If Mr. Obama does win Tuesday and if Republicans lose seats in both houses of Congress, recriminations will fly on the American right. A lot of red ink is going to be spilled by the various angry Republican factions, duelling for control of the narrative of who supposedly cost the party the election and how. We paleoconservatives should and will wade warmly into the coming intraparty brawl with fists at the ready, for would be exceedingly foolish not to try take a certain advantage of the approaching moment of defeat to suppress Bushism and McCainism within the party. However, we ought not really to take the coming recriminations to heart. Had Congressional Republicans built a wall along the entire Mexican border (they did not, alas) and had President Bush extracted us from our foreign wars with honor, we would still be climbing a steep political hill this year. As it is, we are climbing a cliff. You and I ought to be perceptive enough to realize this.
Republicans candidates are trying. Bless them; they always do. But we do not expect them to triumph this year.
And don’t you believe the coming red ink! Keep your cool. As the short years pass, the wheel will turn again; it always does. Our task shall be to ensure that, when the wheel does turn, ours is the Republican faction the wheel carries to the top.
HJH