A fleeting illusion of electoral strength
To predict elections is not The Economic Nationalist’s purpose or forte. However, for what little it might be worth, I have mentioned in recent weeks in Daniel Larison’s blog and in one or two other places that I do not believe John McCain’s apparent current strength in the opinion polls. When excited supporters of either of the two surviving Democratic candidates promise to vote Republican rather than for the other Democrat, well, they’re just excited. Give them three weeks after the Democratic national convention to calm down, to remember why they don’t like Republicans, and Mr. McCain’s poll numbers will tank. What is surprising is not that Mr. McCain’s poll numbers are strong right now, but rather that they are not stronger than they are.
Remember: Mr. McCain right now is running unopposed. This will change, come Labor Day.
Mr. McCain is an uncommonly charismatic candidate and unfortunately could still win the election, but you and I should not misinterpret current opinion polls on that basis. Polls showing Mr. McCain approximately tied with Barack Obama should be interpreted as predicting a 5- to 10-point McCain loss in November.
By the way, polls more than two months in advance of Election Day mean little in any case. Fundamentally, 2008 remains an unusually strong Democratic year.
HJH
[Update: Alan I. Abramowitz has got it right.]